Climate Variability Awareness and Vulnerability Status among Smallholder Crop Farmers in Kenya: Evidence from Kuria East Sub-county

This study examined the relationship between smallholder farmers’ awareness of climate variability and their level of vulnerability. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Nyabasi East and Nyabasi West wards of Kuria East Sub-County, Migori County, Kenya, during 2025. A sample size of 361 smallholder farmers growing arable crops calculated using Cochran’s (1977) method was utilized. The study employed random sampling to select respondents. Awareness of climate variability was assessed based on the farmers’ reported knowledge and observations regarding indicators of climate variability and was then classified into three levels: low, moderate and high. The level of vulnerability was determined based on the number of climate-related impacts reported on agricultural activities, with farmers reporting at least three effects classified as highly vulnerable. A chi-squared test of independence was used to test the null hypothesis that there is no statistically significant association between farmers’ awareness of climate variability and their level of vulnerability. The descriptive results showed that the majority of farmers (65.1 per cent) demonstrated moderate awareness of climate variability while 29.1 per cent had low awareness and 5.8 per cent had high awareness. Cumulatively, 30.5 per cent of farmers were classified as highly vulnerable. The chi-squared test revealed no statistically significant association between awareness and the level of vulnerability; χ² (2, N = 361) = 4.65, p = 0.098, at a significance level of 0.05. This result indicates that awareness alone does not determine farmers’ levels of vulnerability, suggesting that other factors not measured in this study may also influence vulnerability. The study recommends that climate change adaptation policy in the study region go beyond awareness-raising campaigns and move towards integrated interventions that combine the dissemination of information with concrete institutional support.