Spatiotemporal Evolution of Water–Energy–Food Resilience in the Central Area of the Yangtze River Delta, China

By incorporating indicators related to input-output relationships, this study examined the spatiotemporal evolution of Water–Energy–Food (WEF) resilience for the 27 prefecture-level cities (PLCs) within the central area of the Yangtze River Delta (caYRD) over the period 2005–2023. Results showed that (1) WEF resilience exhibited moderate fluctuations with an upward trend and a spatial pattern of high values in the north and low values in the south. PLCs with higher mean WEF resilience generally had larger positive slopes. The mean WEF resilience value across the study area was 0.2913, and its mean annual trend slope was 0.003 yr−1. (2) WEF resilience presented three distribution patterns in its kernel density estimation curves: a low-value, highly concentrated narrow-peak type (Jiaxing), an M-shaped bimodal type (Hefei), and a wide-ranging gentle-peak type (Yancheng and Chuzhou). The regional mean WEF resilience showed an increasingly divergent trend after 2010. (3) Statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelations of WEF resilience were identified for 11 of the 19 study years (2005–2007, 2010–2015, 2017, and 2019), with a mean Moran’s I of 0.2244. High-low clustering was observed in Xuancheng and low-low clustering in Changzhou and Wuxi in the early stage, but the extent of low-low clustering gradually narrowed in the later stage. Only Yancheng remained a persistent hot spot, whereas Taizhou (JS) and Chuzhou were non-persistent hot spots, with no cold-spot PLCs. (4) Optimizing WEF resource allocation, enhancing resource output efficiency, and coordinating policy governance could serve as key strategies to improve WEF resilience across the caYRD.