A Conditional Floor: What the Store-of-Value Case for ETH Leaves Exposed

A Conditional Floor examines the dependencies beneath the case for ETH as a store of value. It asks how durable that case remains when long-term holding depends on regulated custodians, treasury companies, and asset issuers whose commitments may not survive a contested fork. A fork can preserve the ledger without preserving the claims and services built around it. The note considers what this distinction means for Ethereum’s capacity for social recovery, and why holders who retain control of their keys and choice of chain matter to that capacity. It also examines issuance policy as one influence on whether those choices remain with holders or pass to intermediaries. Written in response to Vitalik Buterin’s November 2026 discussion of ETH as a store of value, this is a qualitative research note. It offers no price forecast, models no issuance curve, and does not estimate holder or issuer shares.