The spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of enterprise-led organic agriculture: Evidence from Shandong Province

This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of enterprise-led organic agriculture in Shandong Province, China. Using panel data on certified organic enterprise production bases across 16 prefecture-level cities from 2014 to 2023, we combine spatial statistical analysis, Local Moran’s I, two-way fixed-effects regression, and robustness checks. The results show that certified organic bases expanded substantially but became increasingly concentrated, forming a clear core–periphery structure centered on the Jiaodong Peninsula. Transportation infrastructure, e-commerce connectivity, and GI-protected agricultural products are positively associated with base expansion, while fiscal expenditure shows a negative association, possibly reflecting compensatory policy allocation to less-developed areas. Overall, the findings suggest that enterprise-led organic agriculture evolves through a layered “Pressure–Transformation–Support–Market” mechanism and provide evidence for promoting coordinated regional development in sustainable agriculture.