How is climate change risk perception shaped? The role of risk framing, external incentives and personal norms in agriculture

Abstract Arable farmers’ perceptions of climate change risks are shaped by a complex interaction of individual values, economic pressures, and external incentives. Using the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory, this study extends the climate change risk management literature by examining how factors such as risk framing, knowledge support, and economic incentives relate to these perceptions. Using qualitative data from 9 expert interviews, 16 focus groups, and 59 semi-structured interviews with Dutch arable farmers, the study explores how arable farmers shape their climate change risk perceptions through a dynamic interplay of personal values, economic pressures, and external incentives. Participants associated different framings of climate change—as a threat or an opportunity—with differences in risk appraisal and reported decision-making. Participants described external incentives as more useful when they aligned with personal norms and made responses financially and institutionally feasible. Participants’ retrospective accounts linked perceived risk salience to experience, adaptation outcomes, and broader structural conditions; the cross-sectional design does not establish observed change over time. The study highlights the importance of understanding these interacting influences for designing context-sensitive climate adaptation strategies. The findings suggest that predictable financial, technical, and institutional support may make adaptation responses more feasible, but do not guarantee behaviour.