ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF CUSTOMS REVENUE AND SCENARIO-BASED FORECAST FOR 2026–2030

This thesis develops a log-linear econometric model based on data for 2015–2025, taking into account the impact of Uzbekistan’s merchandise imports, GDP expressed in US dollars, the exchange rate, and the pandemic year. Based on this model, a three-scenario forecast of customs revenue for 2026–2030 is developed. The model explains 98.3% of the variance in the logarithm of imports, with an income elasticity of imports of 0.681. Under the baseline scenario, imports will reach USD 74.2 billion and customs revenue will amount to UZS 138.5 trillion in 2030. However, their ratio to GDP will be 3.83%, below the 4.4% target set in the strategy. It is substantiated that achieving this target requires increasing the effective tax burden from 12.8% to 13.7–14.7%.