Parental occupational configurations and changing occupational expectations: Evidence from PISA, 2000–2022

Research on occupational expectations has largely examined mothers' and fathers' occupations separately, paying less attention to how they combine within families. Using six PISA waves (2000–2022) across 20 countries, this study examines changes in parental occupational configurations and adolescents' expectations of entering Technical STEM, Health, and Education. Four configurations are distinguished: Both-parent, Mother-only, Father-only, and Neither-parent. Descriptive analyses, a symmetric Kitagawa decomposition, and survey-weighted logistic regressions examine changes in configuration prevalence, expectations within configurations, and their associations over time. Results show declining Technical STEM expectations, increasing Health expectations, and modest changes in Education. Within-configuration changes accounted for most historical change in Technical STEM and Health, whereas compositional changes contributed more substantially in Education. Parental configurations remained associated with occupational expectations after socioeconomic and achievement adjustments, with limited evidence of systematic changes in these associations over time. The findings show that changing occupational expectations can coexist with continuing differences associated with parental occupational backgrounds.