End-of-Life Recycling of New Energy Equipment: Challenges, Policy Frameworks, and Circular Economy Pathways—A Case Study of Henan Province, China

Rapid deployment of new energy technologies is generating growing volumes of end-of-life equipment. In Chinese policy discourse, three such waste streams are grouped as the “new trio”: electric vehicle (EV) lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic (PV) modules, and wind turbine blades. Under the International Energy Agency net-zero emissions scenario, global renewable capacity must more than triple by 2030, implying a proportional acceleration in end-of-life equipment flows that few national waste management systems are currently equipped to absorb. This study combines material flow analysis (MFA) to quantify waste generation, lifecycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate recycling pathways, and policy text quantitative analysis (PTQA) to benchmark technology maturity and policy frameworks in China, the EU, and Japan. A case study of Henan Province identifies systemic bottlenecks and policy responses. Global “new trio” waste is projected to exceed 16.7 million tons by 2030 under baseline assumptions, with China accounting for approximately 45% of total generation. The embedded resource value is estimated at USD 28 billion in 2025, growing to USD 75 billion by 2030. EV battery recycling demonstrates the highest technology maturity (3.5/5), while PV modules (1.8/5) and wind turbine blades (1.5/5) remain at early developmental stages constrained by fundamental technical bottlenecks. The EU leads in extended producer responsibility (EPR) implementation with over 90% recovery rates, followed by Japan at 85% and China at approximately 60%. The case study of Henan Province reveals significant imbalances between upstream manufacturing scale and downstream recycling capacity. Five systemic barriers—incomplete regulation, technological bottlenecks, market failure, fragmented governance, and underdeveloped industrial ecosystems—are identified, and seven policy recommendations are proposed to advance circular economy transitions for sustainable new energy waste management.