Scenariodenken: tijd voor reflectie

Scenario thinking: time for reflection: New perspectives on old forms of future thinking This article analyses the shortcomings of scenario thinking in Dutch policy practice. It takes an innovative, critical look at scenario thinking as a common approach to futures studies. The authors identify four major points of critique: 1. scenario thinking does not sufficiently take into account politicisation and societal fears that strongly influence visions of the future; 2. it offers too few practical tools for policymakers, which means that outcomes are rarely applied in practice; 3. it often serves as an instrument to legitimise existing policy; and 4. ‘contributors’ in the scenario thinking process are often not given real room for thought, which undermines support for the approach. This raises serious questions about the usefulness and impact of scenario thinking. We argue for a return to simpler and more reflective future thinking, so that policy-making is better aligned with the reality and needs of society. The article calls for a rethinking of our approach to future scenarios and for recognition of the value of historical insights in policy-making.