Two-Stage Potential Accessibility and Equity of Emergency Medical Services for Residential Communities: A Beijing Case Study

Improving the survival rates of critically ill and injured patients, particularly vulnerable groups such as children and older people, necessitates timely and effective emergency medical services (EMS). However, current research on EMS accessibility typically overlooks the additional travel time required to take patients to hospitals. This study proposes a two-stage nearest-facility supply–demand accessibility index for evaluating potential emergency medical services accessibility (PEMSA) (PEMSA represents only the morning-peak scenario), accounting for both supply–demand disparities and the time sensitivity of emergency response, with the area within Beijing’s Sixth Ring Road serving as a case study. The two-stage EMS framework involves transportation from the closest first-aid station to the residential community, and transportation from the residential community to the nearest emergency department. The Gini coefficient is employed to examine the equity of PEMSA across the research area’s administrative districts. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model is employed to evaluate the relationship between PEMSA and demographic characteristics, namely the percentages of children and older people. The results indicate that PEMSA follows a core–periphery spatial pattern. Based on accessibility and equitable outcomes, the identified spatial mismatch areas are classified as critical priority, priority, or sub-priority intervention zones. The primary reasons for this accessibility discrepancy are road traffic congestion and a geographic mismatch between emergency facility density and demographic distribution; accessibility is significantly correlated with the proportions of children and older people. These findings, as well as the proposed analytical framework, are valuable for evaluating urban EMS accessibility and optimizing the spatial layout of EMS.