Measuring global value chain resilience, dynamic evolution and counterfactual simulations

Purpose Against the backdrop of profound global value chain (GVC) restructuring and rising uncertainty, strengthening GVC resilience has become a major concern worldwide. Using the 2007–2023 Asian Development Bank Multiregional Input‑Output Database (ADB-MRIO) database, this study constructs directed, weighted GVC networks at the country-industry level, systematically assesses resilience in terms of resistance, recovery and adaptive capacity, and employs counterfactual simulations to examine the networks' structural robustness. This study provides a systematic framework for understanding the multilevel structure and dynamic evolution of GVC resilience and offers empirical evidence for policy formulation. Design/methodology/approach Using the 2007–2023 ADB-MRIO database, this study constructs directed, weighted GVC networks at the country-industry level, systematically assesses resilience in terms of resistance, recovery and adaptive capacity, and employs counterfactual simulations to examine the networks' structural robustness. Findings The results show that, first, the GVC network exhibits pronounced core-periphery differentiation and regional clustering. And network density and global efficiency display an overall upward trend despite repeated shocks, indicating strong connectivity resilience and transmission efficiency. Second, resilience varies substantially across countries. Economies with high betweenness centrality serve as critical bridges, those with greater reciprocity are more resistant to shocks in two-way trade and Shannon entropy reveals increasingly diversified trade paths and stronger recovery capacity among emerging economies. Jaccard distance further indicates that the global financial crisis, trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic all triggered substantial network restructuring; countries nevertheless achieved dynamic repair and adaptation by reorganizing supply chains and reallocating trade relationships. Third, sectoral resilience differs markedly by technological intensity. The traditional hub status of advanced economies has weakened, whereas the intermediary role of emerging economies, particularly China, has strengthened. Low-technology manufacturing has shifted toward Southeast Asia, medium-technology manufacturing has remained relatively stable and mutual dependence in high-technology manufacturing has continued to deepen. Fourth, counterfactual simulations reveal substantial dependence on a small number of critical nodes and edges: targeted attacks impair network connectivity more severely than random shocks, highlighting persistent structural vulnerability. Research limitations/implications There is a lack of empirical studies on enhancing global value chain resilience; future research should conduct more empirical analyses. Practical implications This paper suggests that GVC resilience should be enhanced by diversifying trade partners, deepening regional value chain cooperation and improving coordinated global supply-chain governance. Social implications Identifying and strategically managing key edges, nodes, important partner countries and bottleneck commodities constitutes a major strategy for promoting sustainable global economic development. Originality/value Existing literature on global value chain resilience is mostly based on measuring the security and stability of global value chains, and most of them focus on studying the influencing factors of global value chain resilience. This study uses the Wang‑Wei‑Zhu (WWZ) decomposition method to decompose the global input-output tables, and uses the domestic value added network to construct a national-industry-level global value chain network to measure relevant indicators to analyze the resilience evolution of the global value chain. In addition, in the counterfactual simulation part, this study focuses on using national-industry-level data to conduct counterfactual simulations by constructing a global value chain network and using methods such as targeted attacks, random attacks and decoupling between China and the United States of America.