FROM MASS HIGHER EDUCATION TO AGRICULTURAL SKILLS: THE SUPPLY OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR UZBEKISTAN'S AGRICULTURE AND A DEMAND-DRIVEN TRAINING MECHANISM

This paper assesses whether the rapid expansion of higher education in Uzbekistan has been accompanied by an adequate supply of human capital for the agricultural sector. It also proposes an organisational and economic mechanism for training agricultural specialists. Official education and labour statistics for 2015–2025 are analysed using enrolment indices, the share of agricultural fields in total enrolment, a representation index comparing this share with agriculture's share of total employment, the number of graduates entering the sector per 1,000 agricultural workers, and a qualitative gap analysis comparing state educational requirements with employers' requirements for five key agricultural occupations. Between the 2015/16 and 2024/25 academic years, total higher education enrolment increased 5.4-fold, from 264.3 thousand to 1,432.8 thousand students, while enrolment in agricultural fields increased only 2.2-fold, from 19.9 thousand to 43.6 thousand. The share of agricultural fields in total enrolment declined from 7.5% to 3.0%, while the representation index relative to the sector's share of employment decreased from 0.23 in 2019/20 to 0.13 in 2024/25. Vocational education experienced a substantial contraction, with the number of vocational graduates declining from 482.2 thousand in 2015 to 28.3 thousand in 2024. The number of graduates trained specifically for agriculture increased from 16.8 thousand to 19.2 thousand, equivalent to an increase from 4.8 to 5.9 graduates per 1,000 agricultural workers. However, this growth was attributable exclusively to an increase in graduates from secondary specialised education, while the number of higher education graduates trained for agriculture declined by 6.6%. The gap analysis indicates that state educational standards emphasise general and research competencies, whereas employers prioritise operational, seasonal, and costmanagement skills. The study proposes a demand-driven organisational and economic mechanism for training agricultural specialists. Under this mechanism, regional authorities and agricultural producers place orders for specialists, training is financed through targeted grants, and tripartite agreements between students, universities, and producers provide for paid practical training, employment, and housing in the relevant region. These measures are complemented by periodic advanced training and mentoring.