Antarctic sea ice variability and monsoonal precipitation: a review of reported teleconnections, associations and uncertainties

Abstract Antarctic sea ice variability is increasingly recognized as a potentially important component of the coupled Southern Hemisphere climate system. Growing observational, reanalysis, and modeling evidence suggests that Antarctic sea ice anomalies are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes that may contribute to climate variability in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the relative contribution of Antarctic sea ice variability compared with established climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) remains incompletely understood. At the sectoral scale, asymmetric sea ice variability associated with wind-driven Ekman transport, air–sea heat flux anomalies, and ocean–ice interactions has been linked to dipole-like patterns of atmospheric and oceanic variability that may alter jet streams, storm tracks, and large-scale circulation. Proposed teleconnection pathways involving Rossby wave propagation and circulation adjustments suggest that sea ice variability in the Indian Ocean, Pacific, and Atlantic sectors may be associated with changes in cross-equatorial moisture transport, subtropical jet position, and regional pressure systems, with potential implications for precipitation variability across South Asia, East Asia, and Africa. Collectively, the available evidence indicates that Antarctic sea ice variability may represent one component of a broader interconnected climate system influencing hydroclimatic variability across multiple regions, while also highlighting substantial uncertainties regarding the magnitude, mechanisms, and regional expression of these relationships. Improved understanding of Southern Ocean–ice–atmosphere interactions and their representation in climate models will be important for evaluating the potential role of Antarctic sea ice variability in seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and hydroclimatic predictability.