Pancreatitis burden in China from 1990 to 2023 and projections to 2050 based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract Background Pancreatitis is a common inflammatory disease with rising incidence and a trend toward affecting younger populations, imposing a substantial global burden. In China, rapid socioeconomic changes have shaped unique epidemiological patterns, necessitating updated assessments to guide policy. Methods Using Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2023, this study evaluated pancreatitis burden in China by age and sex, analyzed trends, and projected outcomes to 2050. Results In 2023, China had approximately 515,000 prevalent cases, 460,000 incident cases, 9,000 deaths, and 263,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to pancreatitis. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 were 24.26 for prevalence, 23.7 for incidence, 0.42 for mortality, and 13.11 for DALYs, with higher burdens in males. From 1990 to 2023, absolute burdens rose significantly (average annual percentage change: prevalence 1.15%, incidence 0.72%, mortality 1.12%, DALYs 0.33%), while age-standardized rates declined, faster in females. Cases peaked in the 45–80 age group, with rates increasing uniformly with age. Decomposition analysis identified population aging and growth as primary burden drivers, while epidemiological changes were protective. Alcohol-attributable DALYs increased from 10.36% to 14.52%, and deaths from 8.7% to 12.49%. Projections to 2050 show stable age-standardized prevalence and incidence, with steady declines in mortality and DALYs. Conclusion Although age-standardized rates declined, China’s aging population will sustain a rising pancreatitis burden, concentrated in middle-aged and elderly groups. Future policies should prioritize alcohol control and targeted prevention