Bridging the gap between teacher supply and demand in Indonesia: insights from the government contract-based teacher recruitment policy

Purpose This study investigates the root causes of Indonesia's teacher distribution crisis, examining the upstream-downstream paradox where a surplus of education graduates coexists with critical teacher shortages in public schools. Design/methodology/approach Employing a Multi-Level Governance (MLG) framework, this qualitative case study analyzes data from 21 key stakeholders, including central and local government officials, university lecturers and teachers. The primary interview data are reinforced by secondary data triangulation from 2021–2024 national recruitment records. Findings The analysis reveals that the shortage is not a supply issue but the result of specific “governance gaps.” These include Fiscal Gaps (local reluctance to hire due to regional allowance costs), Objective Gaps (political patronage), Accountability Gaps (phantom vacancies) and Policy Gaps (fragmented silos). Stakeholders perceive current collaborative efforts as “merely ceremonial” rather than substantive. Research limitations/implications The primary policy focus is 2021–2024, while supply-demand trend analysis draws on national data from 2012 onwards. Long-term policy dynamics may still evolve. Non-state actors in teacher governance were beyond the scope and remain an opportunity for further research. Practical implications The study proposes a “Hybrid Recruitment Governance” model with a split-contract mechanism, where the central government assumes financial responsibility for contract renewals to incentivize local hiring. The proposal is analytically grounded, not empirically tested and requires feasibility assessment. Social implications Resolving these governance misalignments is essential for ensuring equitable educational access, shifting the reform focus from mere teacher supply to sustainable, governance-aligned workforce management. Originality/value This study contributes to the fields of teacher policy and multilevel governance by presenting a nuanced understanding of how systemic design, not merely resource availability, determines the success or failure of national teacher workforce reforms in Indonesia.