Policy fragmentation and NEET outcomes in England: temporal dynamics, place and institutional boundaries

Young people not in education, employment or training (NEETs) remain a policy challenge. Using England as a case study, this paper applies age–period–cohort decomposition and clustered OLS models over 2016–2023 to examine how institutional fragmentation relates to NEET outcomes, contrasting the 16–18 and 19–24 age groups to reflect shifts in responsibility across government tiers. Poverty, maternal education, and mental health are the strongest predictors of NEET risk, and we identify a gradual accumulation of risk across age groups, highlighting the need for better policy coordination across local and national government tiers and agencies.