Increasing investment in science: Prospects for achieving the national goal

Russia’s official science and technology policy documents frame technological sovereignty and technological leadership as strategic objectives and link them to the necessity to expand funding for research and development (R&D). Presidential Decree No. 309 of May 7, 2024, sets a target of increasing gross domestic expenditure on research and development (GERD) to 2% of GDP by 2030, including a twofold increase in private investment in science. At present, Russia’s GERD stands at 1% of GDP, placing the country in the 39 th place in the world by this indicator, although it ranks 9 th in absolute GERD. The article examines the recent dynamics of science funding in Russia and abroad and assesses the parameters of R&D sector financing under the target and inertial scenarios. The authors use a forecasting model to estimate the scale of funding needed to achieve the national target. The target scenario was constructed using a scenario-balance model, calibrated according to Rosstat data, and linking funding to the personnel, material and technical parameters of the R&D sector. The baseline scenario is calculated using a panel VAR model based on data from 30 countries for the period 1996—2022. The results indicate that GERD needs to be increased 2.4 times between 2026 and 2030. Under the inertial scenario, and in the absence of additional support measures, Russia is unlikely to reach the GERD target of 2% of GDP by 2030, even under relatively dynamic economic growth. The paper proposes direct, tax and institutional support measures for Russian organizations that finance and perform research and development.