Settlement preferences and population dynamics in early farming societies of Central Europe (5400−4950 BCE)

ABSTRACT The expansion of the Linearbandkeramik (LBK; ca. 5400–4950 BCE) represents one of the most significant episodes of prehistoric population movement during the Neolithisation of Europe. Although migration is widely accepted as the principal mechanism of this expansion, the roles of ecological adaptation, population pressure and environmental constraints remain debated. We investigate diachronic changes in LBK settlement suitability using the human existence potential (HEP) approach, a species distribution modelling framework, applied to archaeological settlement data from the earliest (eLBK) and full LBK. HEP models were generated using two independent palaeoclimatic reconstructions (PaleoClim and CHELSA) combined with a soil quality index (SQI). Across all model variants, the environmental structure associated with persistent LBK settlement remained remarkably stable through time. Although the environmental envelope and geographical distribution expanded, many landscapes incorporated during later phases already exhibited high suitability in the eLBK models. The results provide little support for repeated large‐scale ecological adaptation or for population pressure and limits of carrying capacity as primary drivers of dispersal. Instead, they indicate considerable environmental flexibility from the outset and suggest that environmental suitability structured, but did not determine, the expansion of the LBK.