Riding the risk: A spatiotemporal analysis of bicycle theft on college campuses

Bicycle theft can undermine cycling as an affordable and sustainable form of transportation, yet relatively little is known about how theft concentrates across university campuses or whether incidents exhibit repeat and near-repeat patterns. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of reported bicycle theft across three University of Nebraska campuses representing college-town, urban, and comparatively rural settings. Using 853 police-recorded incidents from 2016 through 2024, we examine temporal distributions, spatial concentration, and repeat and near-repeat clustering using descriptive mapping, concentration measures, and Knox tests. Bicycle theft was highly seasonal across all three campuses, with September recording the most incidents and thefts occurring disproportionately on weekdays. Incidents were also spatially concentrated, although the degree of concentration varied across campuses. Knox tests identified evidence of localized spatiotemporal clustering, but these patterns were campus-specific and sensitive to analytical specification. The most persistent evidence occurred at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and University of Nebraska Omaha, whereas clustering at the University of Nebraska at Kearney was less stable. Sensitivity analyses excluding the COVID-19 pandemic years and altering the treatment of time and same-location incidents further demonstrated that near-repeat patterns were not uniform across settings. Overall, the findings suggest that campus bicycle theft concentrates at particular places and times but does not exhibit a single, consistent near-repeat process across campuses environments. These results highlight the value of examining bicycle theft at fine spatial and temporal scales while distinguishing concentrations of recorded incidents from differences in theft risk per bicycle.