Between rootedness and aspiration: macro, meso, and individual factors in the migration intention of university students in a Peruvian Intermediate City

University students in Peru’s intermediate cities are widely assumed to leave once they graduate, yet the mechanisms behind that decision remain poorly disentangled. This study asks whether structural, relational, or individual factors best predict migration intention among 440 undergraduates from public and private universities in Arequipa, surveyed through an embedded mixed-methods instrument combining macro-, meso-, and individual-level Likert scales with ten open-ended questions. Two-thirds of respondents (65.0%) reported intending to migrate after graduation, mainly abroad and to Lima. Hierarchical binary logistic regression showed that meso and individual scores were positively associated with migration intention, while the macro score turned negative once the other two levels were controlled for, a pattern consistent with statistical suppression among correlated predictors. A dimension-level model isolated personal attitudes and aspirations as the single strongest predictor, ahead of community rootedness. Thematic analysis of 1,883 open-ended responses identified job precariousness as the dominant narrative, yet this theme carried no comparable weight in the regression models; triangulating both components exposed this mismatch between what students say and what statistically distinguishes them, and clarified why two structurally distinct student clusters nonetheless shared the same migration-intention rate. Retention policy for university talent in Arequipa, the findings suggest, cannot rest on aggregate economic indicators alone: it must also engage students’ concrete career aspirations and their sense of belonging to the region.