The Empty Box: Documentation Gaps, Input Sourcing and Audit Readiness in Peruvian SME Export Supply Chains Under the Duty Drawback Regime

Background: Duty drawback refunds import duties to exporters, yet many eligible small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) do not claim it. We ask why, and what trying to claim it does to their supply chains. Methods: We analyzed 50 recorded technical-assistance sessions with 18 Peruvian exporting SMEs in a 2025 export-promotion programme, using codebook thematic analysis with coding by AI assistants, two rounds of blind double coding (Cohen’s κ = 0.66 with the initial codebook, 0.78 with the revised one) and adjudication. Results: For these firms, drawback is less a rate than a documentary chain of custody for a marginal imported input (labels, bags, boxes). Eligibility depends on how that input was bought; the proof runs through links the exporter does not control: informal producers and carriers, suppliers that will not size their sworn declaration, and brokers who leave the drawback flag empty. Intermediaries act as gatekeepers without mandate, and audit risk reaches firms second-hand. A rule-based six-position typology separates firms that cannot document their purchase from those that do not activate a documented chain, and identifies “phantom enrolment”. Only one organizational change was executed during the assistance; most were stated intentions. Conclusions: The findings point to the flag, the supplier declaration and the correction window.