CFP Route 4: Independent Severe Tests.

This package contains the analysis scripts and the timestamped climate pre-registration for two severe tests of the information limit (Route 4) of the Correction Freeze Problem (CFP). The inflation expectations test used monthly data from 2000 to 2026 from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s gasoline price series. The climate belief test matched 37,417 respondents from the Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) surveys conducted from 2008 to 2025 to regional temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Route 4 survived both tests. Each used independent data and allowed for outcomes that could have counted against Route 4. The conclusion is limited to its survival under the conditions examined.