Communicating risk and uncertainty: a case of fire spread prediction maps

Abstract Fire spread prediction maps (FSPMs) present a distinct visualisation challenge: they must simultaneously communicate current fire extent (known risk) and predicted fire spread (uncertain risk) within a single, readable map. The communication of risk and uncertainty represents one of the most persistent challenges in science communication. This study investigates how visual representations of risk and uncertainty on fire spread prediction maps affect community comprehension, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. Six focus groups (n = 34) were conducted in peri-urban and regional locations across three Australian states, with participants evaluating jurisdiction-specific maps depicting 24-hour fire spread predictions. Findings reveal that colour, the primary visual encoding tool, was consistently misinterpreted: graduated red hues intended to communicate temporal progression were read as a risk hierarchy, generating false senses of security for those in lighter-shaded zones. Participants frequently conflated fire spread predictions with existing incident warning areas, and the layering of these elements on a single map overwhelmed parallel processing capacity. Uncertainty was anchored in participants' own knowledge of weather variability (e.g., wind), which was absent from the maps, rather than specific design choices. FSPMs functioned as cues for pre-decisional information-seeking rather than direct triggers for protective action. These findings suggest that effective risk visualisation requires technically accurate visual encoding but also deliberate alignment between design choices and how communities cognitively and emotionally process spatial hazard information under stress.