Trade, food security and climate risk: Connecting global policy to local realities

Amid escalating climate change, geopolitical instability, and widening socioeconomic inequality, the interlinked dynamics of trade, food security, and climate resilience pose a critical global challenge. While trade can increase national food availability, it does not necessarily ensure affordability or access for households, particularly in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable countries. This paper adopts a systems perspective to examine how the global trade architecture – shaped by multilateral institutions, regional agreements, and corporate interests – is often disconnected from the realities of ordinary people, in terms of their food access and nutritional outcomes. Using Malawi as a case study, we show how trade policies, climate shocks, and poverty interact to undermine food security, even when national supplies appear adequate. We argue that trade policy must be evaluated by its impact on household affordability and access, rather than by aggregate supply indicators, and call for trade approaches that centre on real-world impacts on the ground, where ordinary people experience its effects.