Estimación de tasas de fecundidad en micro áreas geográficas: un estudio de caso en Córdoba Capital (2001-2022)

This study estimates stable age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) for urban micro-areas in the department of Córdoba Capital, Argentina, between 2001 and 2022. Given the high statistical variability of crude ASFR at the census tract level, the study proposes and applies a two-stage estimation method. First, contiguous census tracts with fewer than five women per age group are spatially aggregated, ensuring socioeconomic homogeneity. Second, a hierarchical Bayesian model with MCMC methods is applied, incorporating the area's socioeconomic level —measured by the average educational attainment of household heads— as a predictor covariate and using informative priors derived from known aggregate census data. The results show that the smoothing procedure eliminates extreme values, reduces statistical noise, and significantly strengthens the negative correlation between fertility and socioeconomic level, particularly among women aged 15-34. The smoothed ASFR exhibit greater temporal stability and spatial autocorrelation (Moran's Index), revealing persistent and segregated residential patterns. The method provides more robust fertility estimates for small areas and constitutes a valuable input for the analysis of territorial inequalities and for retrospective demographic projections aimed at estimating intra-urban migration balances with high geographic detail.