Do Wildfires Deter Tourists? A Difference‐in‐Differences Event Study of Mediterranean Regions, 2010–2023

ABSTRACT Wildfire poses a growing hazard in the Mediterranean, coinciding with the months when the basin's tourism economy is most exposed. This study examines whether catastrophic wildfires reduce tourism demand in the affected regions. Eurostat regional tourism statistics were used to assemble an annual panel covering 58 NUTS‐2 regions in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy from 2010 to 2023, and 21 regions that experienced a catastrophic wildfire, identified from documented EFFIS and Copernicus Emergency Management Service records using a formal criterion, were compared with 37 never‐treated regions. No regional reduction in tourism nights is detected in the fire year; in the following year the point estimate is a reduction of approximately 5%, although this estimate is only marginally significant and is not robust across estimators. This average, however, conceals substantial heterogeneity: among fires that struck the tourism core of a destination, tourism nights fall by approximately 8% in the fire year and remain depressed in the following 2 years, whereas interior wildland fires have no measurable effect on regional tourism. The regional evidence therefore suggests that regional tourism in the Mediterranean is considerably more resilient to catastrophic wildfire than is commonly assumed and that the losses are concentrated in destinations where the fire reached the tourism core. These findings can help regional authorities target recovery efforts at destinations experiencing losses.