Global Export Competitiveness of Crude Palm Oil: A Comparative Analysis of CPOPC Member Countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Honduras)

Crude palm oil (CPO) is a key global commodity. However, sustainability-related trade pressures, especially the European Union Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II), increasingly shape its export performance. This study examines CPO export competitiveness among CPOPC member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Honduras—over 2010–2024, and compares the pre-RED II (2011–2017) and post-RED II (2018–2024) periods. The analysis uses annual trade data, with 2024 as the latest full calendar year with complete annual observations available at the time of data extraction. Using a descriptive comparative quantitative approach and secondary trade data, the analysis evaluates comparative advantage through RCA and RSCA. It assesses competitive dynamics using Export Product Dynamics (EPD) and the Export Competitiveness Index (ECI). The analysis tests period differences with the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test. The results confirm persistent comparative advantage across all members, but show heterogeneous competitive positioning: Indonesia is classified as a “lost opportunity,” while Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Honduras are categorized as “rising stars.” The RED II-period comparison shows no statistically significant median differences in RSCA or ECI. The available seven-year paired observations do not provide sufficient evidence of a discrete shift between the two periods. From a policy perspective, CPOPC members should focus not only on maintaining comparative advantage but also on strengthening market diversification, downstream processing, sustainability compliance, and export-market adaptability. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating comparative and competitive indicators to capture structural differences and dynamic market responses among palm oil exporting countries.