Ensemble species distribution modeling and InVEST-based habitat quality assessment for Cupressus funebris under climate change: identifying refugia, ecological security patterns, and conservation priorities in China

Abstract Cupressus funebris , an indigenous and ecologically important conifer in China, is increasingly endangered by climate change and habitat fragmentation. Using an ensemble species distribution model (BIOMOD2), we projected current and future habitat suitability under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. We integrated 355 occurrence records and bioclimatic variables using 12 algorithms. We also used the InVEST Habitat Quality model to assess current habitat quality and degradation, and constructed an ecological security pattern from habitat patches and resistance surfaces. This framework identified climate refugia and priority conservation zones. Random Forest performed best (AUC = 0.92 ± 0.02, TSS = 0.85 ± 0.03). Temperature seasonality (Bio04) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio06) were the main climatic drivers. Results show severe range contractions under all scenarios: habitat loss ranges from − 28.5% (SSP1-2.6) to − 62.4% (SSP5-8.5) by the 2090s, with elevational shifts of 180–310 m. Persistent climate refugia (about 15,200 km²) occur in topographically complex regions like the Hengduan Mountains and Northern Yunnan. InVEST showed that high-quality habitat patches are largely restricted to these refugia, while degradation hotspots overlap with projected climate loss zones. A spatial conservation priority map combining climate suitability and habitat quality guides adaptive management, highlighting areas for immediate protection, assisted migration, ex situ conservation, and ecological restoration. This multi-model framework supports climate-resilient conservation strategies for C. funebris .