Intention Without Opportunity, Activity Without Consolidation: A Statistical Comparison of Entrepreneurship in Iran and Canada, 2008–2025, with Scenarios to 2035

Iran and Canada sit at opposite ends of most rankings of entrepreneurial conditions, yet comparisons between them usually stop at the ranking. This paper compares the two countries on harmonised individual-level and expert-level indicators and identifies the specific mechanisms that hold each one back. It uses the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Adult Population Survey for Iran (2008–2023) and Canada (2001–2006, 2013–2025), GEM National Expert Survey scores, and World Bank macroeconomic series. The analysis combines four tools. Paired Wilcoxon tests with Holm adjustment and standardised differences cover the eleven years in which both countries were surveyed. Theil–Sen slopes with Mann–Kendall tests estimate trends. Descriptive comparisons span four Iranian sanctions regimes. An ensemble of three forecasting models is combined with explicit scenarios to 2035. The two countries show mirror-image constraints. Iranian adults report more entrepreneurial intention (31.2% against 13.1%), more self-assessed capability and higher social status for entrepreneurs, but far fewer perceive good opportunities (32.0% against 59.7%). The ratio of early-stage activity to intention prevalence is 0.40 in Iran and 1.28 in Canada. Canada's early-stage activity rose by about one percentage point a year between 2013 and 2025 and reached 27.4% in 2025, while established business ownership fell and the ratio of established to early-stage owners declined significantly. The evidence is consistent with Iran being constrained mainly by opportunity, in a setting of macroeconomic instability, sanctions and weak institutions, and with Canada being constrained mainly by consolidation. These are descriptive patterns in aggregate prevalence data, not causal estimates. The ensemble forecasts show little change by 2035 without a change in conditions. The scenarios suggest that Iran's outcomes depend mainly on its external economic environment, whereas Canada's depend mainly on domestic policy for productivity and scale-up.