Fluctuation in China’s liquefied natural gas import prices and risk transmission mechanism: an empirical study from the perspective of the eco-environment-oriented development model

Introduction This study is an exploratory analysis. From the perspective of the Eco-environment-oriented Development (EOD) model, this study constructs a three-dimensional transmission model of “international oil prices–geopolitical risk–environmental policy” to explore the drivers and risk transmission paths of China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) import price fluctuations. Methods Using monthly data (September 2021 to September 2024) on China’s LNG import prices, international oil prices (Brent and WTI), the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index, and the Environmental Policy Index (EPI), we conduct a dynamic empirical analysis via a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Results The research findings indicate that, based on asymptotic standard error statistics, the bootstrap robustness check reveals that only the contribution of GPR (22.81%, 95% Bootstrap CI: 3.04%–42.59%) is statistically significant, making it the only robust driver of price fluctuations within the sample period. The contributions of international oil prices (Brent point estimate 13.54%, WTI point estimate 10.05%) and environmental policy (EPI point estimate 11.38%) do not reach statistical significance under bootstrap inference; their point estimates are provided only as directional references and require further validation with larger samples. Discussion The study suggests possible transmission pathways of “international oil prices–geopolitical risk–environmental policy” on China’s LNG import price fluctuations under the EOD model, providing directional policy implications for balancing energy security and low-carbon transition goals. We recommend carbon price-linked LNG long-term contracts, a diversified supply system, and enhanced geopolitical risk early warning and coordination.