Tract-Level Poverty, Income, and the Documented Needs of Colonias in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley

Tract-level poverty and income can guide screening, but their correspondence with colonia needs remains unclear. This study linked 2018–2022 American Community Survey estimates and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development income benchmarks to records for 1266 colonias in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. Spatial analyses examined clustering, and group comparisons accounted for shared census tracts and multiple testing. Study-derived low-income status applied to approximately 81% of tracts with valid classifications, compared with 45% statewide. Among colonias, approximately 75% were in tracts with poverty rates of at least 20%. All four economic indicators clustered regionally, but no High–High-poverty cluster remained significant after false-discovery-rate correction. Economic indicators did not differ significantly across public health classifications, and recorded colonia conditions showed no consistent poverty gradient. Wastewater collection differed across poverty categories, but the association was nonsignificant after adjustment for county, public health classification, population, and acreage. Sample coverage and model-fit concerns limit this finding. The colonia database was last comprehensively updated in 2014, so recorded conditions may differ from current needs. Findings support a two-stage planning approach: use economic maps to identify areas for review, then verify infrastructure and service needs locally before selecting projects.