‘The more the merrier?’ Do earnings trajectories following fathers’ parenting leave uptake vary by contextual support?

Despite policy reforms extending fathers’ parenting leave rights, many fathers still refrain from taking longer leaves. While fear for career disadvantages provides a prominent explanation for men’s limited use, empirical evidence on earnings consequences remains mixed. The extent to which leave uptake shapes fathers’ post-birth earnings trajectories could differ depending on how normalized leave-taking is within a given context. In this study, we ask whether potential negative implications decrease if leave entitlements targeted towards fathers expand and uptake becomes more widespread. We examine this question both at the national policy level and in the local workplace context. Empirically, we draw on Finnish register-based data for the period 2000–2020, and analyse hourly earnings among first-time fathers using stacked regression estimators. Our findings suggest that interruptions beyond the period earmarked to the father may be associated with lower earnings, if the policy and workplace context are less supportive; yet selection is also crucial.