SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY AND TERRITORIAL ACCESSIBILITY IN MANIZALES, COLOMBIA: SOCIAL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF AN EXPANDED AERIAL CABLE NETWORK

This research evaluates the socioeconomic feasibility of expanding the aerial cable car system in Manizales and Villamaría, Colombia, through a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA). The assessment compares the three operational lines with a projected nine-line network, based on the Manizales Land Use Plan. The objective is to quantify and monetize impacts on CO2eq emissions, territorial accessibility, road safety, and public health benefits derived from induced active mobility. A quantitative evaluative approach was employed to compare baseline and projected scenarios using geospatial analysis (Kriging interpolation) and multimodal transport modeling in TransCAD. The baseline integrates the 2017 origin-destination matrix for 255 traffic analysis zones and georeferenced road crash records from 2020 to 2024. Station catchment areas were delineated using ten-minute walking isochrones. The WHO Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) was utilized to monetize health externalities, while road safety was assessed through a risk exposure model. The project yielded a positive Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) of 21951675.75 USD and a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 1.41 over a 15-year horizon. The central appraisal adopts a 9% social discount rate. Public health benefits represent the most significant impact, accounting for 84.2% of the total social contribution and preventing an estimated 564 premature deaths through increased physical activity. The network expansion is socioeconomically viable, functioning as a transportation "Backbone" that mitigates territorial inequalities and reduces road fatalities by 32.1%. The future scenario also projects a 41.0% reduction in injuries, 5,865 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions avoided annually (9.4%), and travel-time savings of up to 19% in the most benefited areas. It constitutes a robust strategy for urban decarbonization and public health promotion, justifying the allocation of public resources for sustainable infrastructure.