Resilience to Landslides in the Lower Shullcas River Basin under Climate Change

The lower Shullcas River basin has a medium-high to low level of risk from landslides. This risk is made worse by geological, climatic, and topographic factors. Climate change, especially through intense rainfall and higher temperatures, increases this risk and makes it necessary to use proper mitigation strategies and more efficient urban development plans. Even so, there are still weaknesses in how risk management is integrated among the people and institutions involved in the territory. The purpose of this research was to identify the areas with the highest risk through mapping, and also to measure the resilience of the population exposed to the highest level of risk, in order to understand how they might respond and act during a possible disaster. For this purpose, methodologies based on risk prevention systems were used, aligned with SIGRID, CENEPRED, and INGEMMET. The results show favorable findings in some respects, since the study area, which includes the districts of Huancayo and El Tambo, presents medium-to-low landslide risk levels, with slopes ranging from 2% to 8%. The most critical zones are located along the marginal strip of the Shullcas River, where slopes reach up to 90% and where conditioning factors such as rainfall, river undercutting, and geomorphology turn these areas into constant hazards. The resilience evaluation shows less encouraging results, since most of the 50 residents surveyed near the highest-risk zone showed low levels of resilience compared with the coastal population of the country. Finally, it is recommended that more studies be carried out on different types of risk, including other triggering factors such as earthquakes, informal human activity, and geological aspects. It is also recommended to study wider areas because of the rapid population growth.