Determinants of the Bilateral Trade Flow of Peruvian Fresh Grape Exports

Peruvian fresh-grape exports have expanded substantially but remain concentrated in a limited number of markets. This study examines the factors associated with bilateral export value for 17 destinations during 2001–2024, using a balanced panel of 408 observations, including 80 zero-export observations (19.61%). An augmented gravity model is estimated by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) with destination and year fixed effects; linear models serve as comparisons. Destination-country gross domestic product (GDP) has a positive coefficient of 1.4118, but its inferential evidence varies across the conventional clustered normal test (p = 0.0424), restricted score test (p = 0.0869), and cluster jackknife (p = 0.5095). The population estimate is exceptionally large and specification-sensitive; distance and the common oil price are not separately identified under the fixed effects employed. Across the 17 destinations, the Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index increased from 0.2858 to 0.3162 between 2001 and 2024, while destinations with no initial exports accounted for 31.55% of the increase in export value. This study contributes product-specific evidence on zero flows, market concentration, and inferential sensitivity without establishing causal effects or generalizing to excluded markets.