From Joules to Millimetres: The Thermosteric Sea-Level Recount

A transparent recount linking observed ocean heat uptake to thermosteric sea-level rise. A planetary imbalance of 0.90 W/m2 corresponds to 1.16 W/m2 over ocean area after the 91% ocean heat share (13.18 ZJ/yr). With the near-surface expansion coefficient the implied rate (1.85 mm/yr) exceeds the observed thermosteric component (1.1-1.4 mm/yr); the observed rate implies a heat-weighted effective coefficient of 1.19-1.51e-4 /K, at which the accounts close (1.20 mm/yr at 1.3e-4 /K). Integrated 1971-2024 under a stated ramp, the ocean gains 485 ZJ, implying 4.43 cm of thermosteric rise. All numbers are from the deposited computation script.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24102457
Primary Topic
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Type
preprint
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preprint

From Joules to Millimetres: The Thermosteric Sea-Level Recount

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
preprint

From Joules to Millimetres: The Thermosteric Sea-Level Recount

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

A transparent recount linking observed ocean heat uptake to thermosteric sea-level rise. A planetary imbalance of 0.90 W/m2 corresponds to 1.16 W/m2 over ocean area after the 91% ocean heat share (13.18 ZJ/yr). With the near-surface expansion coefficient the implied rate (1.85 mm/yr) exceeds the observed thermosteric component (1.1-1.4 mm/yr); the observed rate implies a heat-weighted effective coefficient of 1.19-1.51e-4 /K, at which the accounts close (1.20 mm/yr at 1.3e-4 /K). Integrated 1971-2024 under a stated ramp, the ocean gains 485 ZJ, implying 4.43 cm of thermosteric rise. All numbers are from the deposited computation script.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
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From Joules to Millimetres: The Thermosteric Sea-Level Recount — William Alexander Aldred · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS