Behavioral Effects of Represented Possibilities: How a Depicted Event That Does Not Occur Can Still Change What People Do

This conceptual paper introduces Behavioral Effects of Represented Possibilities, the mechanism by which encountering a depiction of a possible event can change expectations and actions, whether or not that event occurs. Warnings, forecasts, images, and scenarios can therefore have consequences that cannot be assessed through predictive accuracy alone. The paper separates exposure effects, event likelihood, and event feasibility. A depiction does not guarantee an effect, and nonoccurrence alone establishes neither the event’s prior probability nor its feasibility. Changes after exposure require causal assessment against alternative explanations; a warning may itself help prevent the event. The account relates the mechanism to the Thomas theorem and examines the false ballistic missile alert issued in Hawaii on January 13, 2018. The FCC’s report describes shelter seeking, calls, and attempts to confirm the alert. These accounts illustrate behavioral responses without measuring their prevalence across the population or providing a quantified causal effect. Part of the Possibility and Counterfactual Structure series within On Human Modeling, the paper offers questions about exposure, anticipated events, and control over depictions. Its framework can inform human–AI research on how generated scenarios and warnings shape users’ expectations and decisions even when the depicted events do not occur.