Mapping Shorebird Habitat Scenarios in Port Phillip–Western Port Coastal Region Under Climate Change

Migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway (EAAF) are threatened by the degradation of stopover sites and climate change, creating challenges for biodiversity conservation and sustainable coastal management. Recent studies increasingly examine population declines, ecological connectivity, and climate-related risks across the flyway. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how future climate change will affect the distribution of critical non-breeding sites in Australia, highlighting the need for stopover habitat suitability projections to inform proactive conservation planning and climate adaptation strategies. Current (2020) and future (2050s) suitability of stopover habitats for 15 shorebird species in the Port Phillip–Western Port coastal region of southern Victoria, Australia, was assessed using an optimised MaxEnt model. The results identified elevation, land-use type, and precipitation seasonality as dominant predictors. Under current conditions, highly suitable areas are concentrated in intertidal mudflats and coastal saltmarshes. Future projections (2050s) indicate widespread contraction of suitable areas, with a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (high-emission) scenario showing the most severe loss. Despite localised area gains in some areas, these were insufficient to offset the overall decline. These results suggest substantial climate-driven reductions in suitable stopover sites for shorebirds, which can guide the integration of projected habitat changes into conservation planning and support recognition of shorebirds as ecological stakeholders.