From Readiness to Revenue: Development Pathways, Prospects, Impacts, and Economic Value of Forest Carbon and Blue Carbon Projects in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has completed most REDD+ readiness requirements and drafted a Carbon Market Framework, but lacks an evidence-based pathway for turning forest and coastal ecosystems into high-integrity carbon projects. Using secondary data from national policy instruments, the Forest Reference Level (FRL), the third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), crediting standards and published literature, this study synthesised a 23-step project development pathway and modelled mitigation potential and economic value under three scenarios. Gross FRL emissions of 1.18 Mt CO2 yr−1 from four forest zones limit REDD+ to 0.29–0.88 Mt CO2 yr−1 of reductions. Restoring the 330,000 ha targeted in the NDC could raise total mitigation to 1.43–4.11 Mt CO2e yr−1 by 2035, with credits worth USD 9–102 million yr−1. Levelised costs were lowest for coastal mangrove afforestation (USD 22 t−1 CO2e) and highest for Hill forest reforestation and REDD+ (about USD 80 t−1), well above current prices. Project development takes four to six years, and land tenure, free, prior and informed consent and benefit-sharing agreements determine the pace. Bangladesh’s comparative advantage lies in removal-based blue carbon and community restoration. Scaling up requires an updated FRL, legally defined carbon rights, registry safeguards against overselling, and blended finance.