De-dollarization: Drivers, Institutional Constraints, and the Evolution of the International Monetary System

The inherent contradictions of the dollar-centered international monetary system have become increasingly prominent in recent decades, compounded by geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in US monetary policy. These developments have intensified efforts by some countries and emerging economies to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, contributing to structural adjustments in the international monetary system. This paper examines the global de-dollarization trend and systematically analyzes its realistic drivers and institutional constraints through literature review, mechanism analysis, and comparative research. The study finds that the evolution of the Triffin dilemma under the dollar standard, the weaponization of dollar-based financial tools, and deepening monetary cooperation among emerging economies jointly constitute the realistic drivers of de-dollarization. However, institutional constraints, including currency network externalities, lock-in effects of global settlement infrastructure, and developmental limitations of alternative currencies, determine that de-dollarization will be a long-term, gradual process. In the long run, the international monetary system may become more multipolar, and currencies of emerging markets can enhance their international influence through continuous institutional improvement.