The Azimuthal-Average Test, Executed: The Registered Profile Prediction for the CMB Axis Fails on the Planck Sky

Verdict paper for the azimuthal-average test registered in DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24102852, executed exactly as registered on the public Planck PR3 data. The registered prediction fixed the azimuthal profile about (l, b) = (-100, 60) degrees as -B2 [P2 + 2.138 P3], with extrema at 0, 68.69, 123.40 and 180 degrees in depth ratios 1 : 0.386 : 0.264 : 0.363 and an amplitude cap B2 <= 21.69 microK. Measured with the registered statistic (5-degree annuli, single-amplitude template fit, 10,000-axis rotated null) on all four PR3 component-separated maps: B2hat = +5.79 microK (SMICA) and +5.79 to +5.84 microK across the four maps, against a null standard deviation of 6.13 microK - consistent with zero at 95% in every map, so by the registration's own P3 the test is reported as null. No companion extremum is present on the registration's binning in any map (P1 fails); the anti-axis cap is cold (-24 microK) where the profile requires hot; the measured cold-ring annulus (-5.1 microK) sits nearer the rival localised reading's smeared prediction (-3.9 microK) than the profile's (-17.7 microK); confirmation (P5) fails in all four maps. Verdict: the registered profile prediction fails on the Planck sky. The paper also corrects the record: the registration described the measurement as not yet performed and did not cite the F-CS1 result note (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24053823, 2026-11-08), which had already measured the azimuthal average about the same axis on the same primary map and returned a failing verdict; this execution reproduces F-CS1's numbers to the printed digits and completes the registered protocol. Scope: what dies is the frame's early-universe application as registered (the l = 2, 3 founding-profile account of the Cold Spot and the large-angle profile); the Aldred Limit as a mathematical statement is not executed by this test; F-CS2 and F-CS3 remain ungraded. The alternate-mask robustness variant returns the same verdict class; the alternate-release (PR4) check could not be run because the Planck Legacy Archive download endpoint was unavailable throughout the run window, and that is stated in the paper. AI use disclosure: this work was produced with Dave, an AI research system; the computation was executed and graded by Dave under the author's direction, and every number is reproducible from the deposited code and the public Planck data.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24115736
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

The Azimuthal-Average Test, Executed: The Registered Profile Prediction for the CMB Axis Fails on the Planck Sky

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

The Azimuthal-Average Test, Executed: The Registered Profile Prediction for the CMB Axis Fails on the Planck Sky

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Verdict paper for the azimuthal-average test registered in DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24102852, executed exactly as registered on the public Planck PR3 data. The registered prediction fixed the azimuthal profile about (l, b) = (-100, 60) degrees as -B2 [P2 + 2.138 P3], with extrema at 0, 68.69, 123.40 and 180 degrees in depth ratios 1 : 0.386 : 0.264 : 0.363 and an amplitude cap B2 <= 21.69 microK. Measured with the registered statistic (5-degree annuli, single-amplitude template fit, 10,000-axis rotated null) on all four PR3 component-separated maps: B2hat = +5.79 microK (SMICA) and +5.79 to +5.84 microK across the four maps, against a null standard deviation of 6.13 microK - consistent with zero at 95% in every map, so by the registration's own P3 the test is reported as null. No companion extremum is present on the registration's binning in any map (P1 fails); the anti-axis cap is cold (-24 microK) where the profile requires hot; the measured cold-ring annulus (-5.1 microK) sits nearer the rival localised reading's smeared prediction (-3.9 microK) than the profile's (-17.7 microK); confirmation (P5) fails in all four maps. Verdict: the registered profile prediction fails on the Planck sky. The paper also corrects the record: the registration described the measurement as not yet performed and did not cite the F-CS1 result note (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24053823, 2026-11-08), which had already measured the azimuthal average about the same axis on the same primary map and returned a failing verdict; this execution reproduces F-CS1's numbers to the printed digits and completes the registered protocol. Scope: what dies is the frame's early-universe application as registered (the l = 2, 3 founding-profile account of the Cold Spot and the large-angle profile); the Aldred Limit as a mathematical statement is not executed by this test; F-CS2 and F-CS3 remain ungraded. The alternate-mask robustness variant returns the same verdict class; the alternate-release (PR4) check could not be run because the Planck Legacy Archive download endpoint was unavailable throughout the run window, and that is stated in the paper. AI use disclosure: this work was produced with Dave, an AI research system; the computation was executed and graded by Dave under the author's direction, and every number is reproducible from the deposited code and the public Planck data.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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