Industrial Growth and Air Pollution in Uzbekistan: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

This paper tests the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Uzbekistan using official annual data on pollutant emissions from stationary sources and real GDP per capita for 2011–2025. Nominal series published by the National Statistics Committee are converted to constant 2011 prices by chain-linking official volume indices. Quadratic and cubic log–log specifications are estimated, the inverted-U shape is assessed with the Lind–Mehlum test, and the analysis is complemented by Tapio decoupling elasticities and a regional decomposition of emissions. A specification in nominal terms proves unreliable owing to severe multicollinearity (variance inflation factors of 91–401). In the full sample, an inverted U is not statistically supported (p = 0.44). Once two localized emission spikes (2014 and 2025) are controlled for, a significant inverted U emerges (p = 0.006), with a turning point of 5.33 million soums per capita at 2011 prices, which corresponds to the income level of 2016–2017. Between 2016 and 2024, emissions declined by 14.0% while real industrial output grew by 60.2%, indicating strong decoupling. In 2025, however, emissions rose by 37.1%, and virtually the entire increase occurred in the Tashkent, Samarkand and Fergana regions. The results suggest that environmental improvement in Uzbekistan is not an automatic by-product of growth but depends on technology and enforcement policies targeted at regional pollution hotspots.