From Fragmentation to Adaptation: Rethinking Humanitarian Governance Under Conditions of Polycrisis

Abstract Humanitarian crises increasingly feature polycrisis, systemic risk, and governance fragmentation, challenging the effectiveness of conventional coordination and response systems. This study examines how governance fragmentation influences humanitarian coordination and response effectiveness and develops an Adaptive Humanitarian Polycrisis Governance Framework to strengthen governance under complex humanitarian environments. The study adopts an integrated qualitative design combining thematic analysis, comparative systems analysis, systems thinking, and Mitroff et al. Crisis Management Theory. Twenty seven humanitarian policy and operational documents comprising Humanitarian Needs and Response Plans for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Sudan, and Ukraine between 2022 and 2026, together with European Union policy documents and comparative case analyses of Sudan and Ukraine, were analyzed using NVivo to identify governance patterns, system interactions, and governance evolution across crises. Findings demonstrate that humanitarian governance has progressively evolved from predominantly reactive emergency coordination toward more adaptive, evidence based, and collaborative governance. However, persistent fragmentation, funding constraints, limited anticipatory capacity, institutional rigidity, and weak system integration continue to constrain effectiveness. Systems analysis reveals that humanitarian outcomes emerge from dynamic interactions among coordination, information systems, evidence based decision-making, funding arrangements, localisation, and community participation rather than isolated governance functions. The study contributes an Adaptive Humanitarian Polycrisis Governance Framework that integrates empirical evidence, systems thinking, humanitarian governance literature, and Mitroff's Crisis Management Theory into five complementary governance capabilities: Early Signal Governance, Adaptive Governance, Systemic Governance, Resilient Governance, and Transformative Governance. The framework provides a practical model for strengthening preparedness, coordination, institutional learning, resilience, and adaptive decision making in increasingly interconnected crisis environments.