Residential black carbon emission scenarios under Atmospheric Decontamination Plan for Valdivia, Chile

Abstract Publicly available information was compiled on activity levels and the degree of implementation of the heating-system replacement measure under the Atmospheric Decontamination Plan for Valdivia (PDA). Based on the level of implementation of this measure, four black carbon (BC) emission assessment scenarios were defined: Current Scenario, Optimistic Scenario, Conservative Scenario, and a Challenging or Zero-Emission Scenario. A review of technical and scientific literature was conducted to define the emission estimation model, along with methodological aspects from recent atmospheric emission inventories of the residential sector in the municipality. Additionally, BC speciation factors were reviewed to determine which factors to use in the emission estimation model for each scenario. The main results indicate that all scenarios reduce BC emissions compared to the baseline. The Optimistic and Zero-Emission scenarios stand out, showing reductions of approximately 40 tons of BC over the period 2017–2024. By 2024, emissions are estimated at 138 and 134 tons/year, respectively, corresponding to reductions of 23% and 26% compared to the baseline of 175.5 tons/year. It is concluded that residential measures under the PDA significantly reduce BC emissions and represent an important step toward meeting national climate change commitments.