Cardiovascular hospital demand projections for Suriname up to 2050 with implications for health system planning

Abstract This study developed a data-driven decision-support framework to project annual hospital admissions and in-hospital mortality for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease in Suriname from 2023 through 2050. Using retrospective discharge data from 2013–2022 across three major public hospitals—accounting for approximately 71.8% of national admissions—historical trends were analyzed using log-linear regression across six age groups. Population projections relied on the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision. Future admissions and deaths were modelled across five policy pathways: status quo, current HEARTS, strengthened HEARTS, full HEARTS targets, and full HEARTS combined with improved hospital survival, with uncertainty assessed via 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results showed that admission rates increased for most age groups between 2013 and 2022. Under the status quo pathway, combined cardiovascular admissions are projected to reach 15,592 in 2030, 30,772 in 2040, and 62,643 in 2050. Compared to the status quo in 2050, projected admissions would drop to 58,073 under current HEARTS, 41,690 under strengthened HEARTS, and 27,469 under full HEARTS—representing median reductions of 6.0%, 33.5%, and 56.1%, respectively. Additionally, projected 2050 deaths would decrease from 2,644 under the status quo to 1,155 under full HEARTS, and further to 924 with improved hospital survival. Cardiovascular hospital demand could rise substantially if historical trends continue, impacting health-system capacity. While not causal estimates or precise forecasts, these modelled pathways illustrate how routine health data can create a transparent framework to guide cardiovascular prevention, resource allocation, and health-system planning in Suriname.