Predator Deterrence by Randomised Flashing Light: The Habituation Bound

Flashing lights are widely sold to protect sheep, goats and poultry from nocturnal predators, yet predators learn that the flashes predict no consequence and stop avoiding them. This paper states a simple habituation model and uses it to compare fixed-pattern and randomised flash schedules and to derive an upper bound on how long any light-only deterrent can remain effective. Under baseline assumptions (initial avoidance 0.85, threshold 0.30, 6 exposures per night), a fixed-pattern deterrent remains effective for 6.86 nights, a randomised-interval deterrent for 21.61 nights, and a fully randomised schedule for 34.63 nights. Even at an assumed irreducible minimum habituation rate, no light-only deterrent exceeds 43.31 effective nights under baseline assumptions. All designs are SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED. AI disclosure: This paper was drafted with the assistance of Dave, an AI system, at the direction of the author William Alexander Aldred.