RISKS ANALYSIS IN IT-PROJECTS OF ELECTRONICS DISTRIBUTORS

Inaccurate risk assessment and insufficient consideration of the specific characteristics of legacy information systems (IS) can lead to disruptions in the stability of business processes. This paper analyzes modern risk management methods, identifies their advantages and limitations in the context of IT projects, and examines the specifics of modernizing IS for electronics distribution. The proposed method is based on the use of an integrated risk indicator and allows for more informed management decisions made during the planning of IS modernization. The aim of this work is to investigate various types of technical and operational risks specific to IT projects involving the modernization of electronics distribution information systems, and to develop a method for managing such risks. The methodology involves comprehensive risk management for the modernization of information systems, based on the integration of technical stability metrics, business context parameters, and the fuzzy formalization of qualitative factors into a single indicator. This allows the risk management process to be transformed into a practical mechanism for making informed management decisions regarding the advisability of implementing changes. The impact of seasonal factors is modeled, and the Fuzzy-AHP method is used to prioritize risk factors under conditions of uncertainty. The scientific novelty lies in the systematic integration of various risk aspects into a single indicator, which allows for a quantitative assessment of the level of risk in an IT project even before development begins, during the planning phase. In conclusion, it should be noted that the proposed integrated risk indicator combines measures of architectural instability of the software code, the level of technical debt, the seasonality coefficient of business cycles, and qualitative expert assessments formalized using fuzzy logic. The effectiveness of the method was confirmed through testing using the example of a project to modernize an electronics distribution information system.