Displaced by a Volcano: Adolescent Well-Being in Uncertain Times in Iceland 2023–2026

Aims: The November 2023 evacuation of Grindavík, Iceland, left families facing prolonged uncertainty about return. We examined adolescent well-being before and after evacuation and changes in gaps with national peers between 2025 and 2026. Methods: Repeated cross-sectional analyses used the 2023, 2025, and 2026 Icelandic Youth Study waves, adjusting for grade, gender, and non-Icelandic background. The town′s single school in 2023 provided the pre-evacuation benchmark, with models accounting for national time trends. Adolescents who moved before evacuation provided a mobility benchmark. Results: In 2025, evacuees reported lower life satisfaction and school belonging, more psychosomatic symptoms, and higher odds of school absence and past-30-day substance use than the national reference group. The three well-being outcomes departed from the pre-evacuation pattern. Life-satisfaction and belonging gaps were larger among girls than boys in 2025, but these gender differences narrowed by 2026. Comparisons with prior movers suggested a distinct evacuation-related pattern in 2025 among evacuee girls, who reported lower life satisfaction and school belonging than prior-mover girls. In 2026, psychosomatic symptoms (B = 0.29, 95% CI [0.08, 0.49]), absenteeism (OR = 1.81, 95% CI [1.26, 2.60]), and substance use (OR = 2.59, 95% CI [1.75, 3.84]) remained higher relative to the national reference group. Life satisfaction and belonging were directionally lower, with intervals including zero. Change estimates did not establish narrowing of the gaps. Conclusions: The findings underscore the need for sustained educational and well-being support to address adolescents′ social connections alongside their mental health during prolonged displacement, including in a Nordic welfare setting.