Educational governance in the AI era: an ecological framework and scenario analysis for policy foresight

This study explores the future of educational governance in the AI era by examining the development of responsible, inclusive, and human-centered approaches to AI integration in education. A systematic literature review was conducted following the PRISMA 2020 framework. The final corpus included 71 peer-reviewed studies (2019–2025). Thematic analysis identified 1,226 open codes, five themes, and thirteen sub-themes. A sensitivity analysis of recent 2024–2025 Generative AI studies was conducted to assess thematic robustness, and a foresight approach based on Poli’s principles and Voros’ framework was used to develop educational governance scenarios toward 2040. Based on these findings, a four-dimensional Ecological Framework for AI Governance in Education was developed. Drawing on key drivers and critical uncertainties, four future educational governance scenarios toward 2040 were developed: Human-Centered Intelligent Transformation, Market-Driven AI Dominance, Fragmented Resistance and Widening Gaps, and Adaptive Human-AI Symbiosis. These scenarios illustrate alternative pathways of AI integration, ranging from human-centered approaches to more challenging and risk-oriented trajectories. The results highlight the importance of ethical policymaking, institutional readiness, AI literacy, and the preservation of human agency in future AI-enabled educational governance.