Retirement Age and Population Aging: A Cross-Country Empirical Study of OECD Members and Implications for China

Population aging puts pressure on pension systems, yet countries facing similar demographic conditions adopt different retirement-age arrangements. Drawing on historical institutionalism and a retirement-incentive framework, this study uses cross-sectional ordinary least squares models to examine 38 OECD member countries. The dependent variable is the normal retirement age for men in 2024. The explanatory variables are the old-age-to-working-age ratio, remaining life expectancy for men at age 65, and public pension expenditure as a share of GDP. A sensitivity analysis assesses Turkey's influence, and model residuals inform comparative case studies of Denmark and South Korea. In the full sample, population aging and remaining life expectancy are positively associated with the normal retirement age, whereas public pension expenditure is negatively associated with it. Excluding Turkey reduces both demographic coefficients, which no longer reach the 5% significance level; the negative association with pension expenditure remains. Turkey's influence highlights the limits of purely demographic explanations. Denmark's normal retirement age exceeds the fitted value, consistent with its rules linking pension eligibility to life expectancy. South Korea's normal retirement age falls below the fitted value, but this does not imply earlier actual exit from the labor market. Combining cross-national statistical evidence with institutional comparisons, the study offers a framework for interpreting China's gradual retirement-age reform, with particular attention to pension sustainability, formal retirement rules, and employment among older workers.